The report provides an assessment of supply and demand across Great Britain over the summer months, concluding that there is expected to be sufficient gas supply to meet forecast demand under current conditions. Demand is expected to be met primarily by UK Continental Shelf and Norwegian supplies, supported by liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and Great Britain’s storage facilities.

While National Gas is not responsible for the procurement of Britain’s gas supply, as the Gas System Operator, we routinely publish demand and supply forecasts to inform the market, in accordance with our licence.

Key insights from the report include:

• Great Britain is expected to have sufficient gas supply to meet forecast summer demand, under current conditions.
• Total gas demand for summer 2026 is comparable to summer 2025, with gas demand for power generation forecast to fall by around 6%, partially offset by a 2% increase in domestic demand.
• Summer demand is expected to be met primarily by UKCS and Norwegian supplies, together accounting for around 86% of total supply (25.3 bcm) and exceeding forecast demand across Great Britain and exports to Ireland (around 21.2 bcm). 
• The remaining supply is expected to be met through a combination of Great Britain’s flexible gas storage, accounting for around 5% of total supply (1.5 bcm), and LNG imports, which are forecast to account for around 9% of total supply (2.7 bcm).
• A comprehensive programme of summer maintenance is planned, including the isolation of 460 miles of pipeline and outages across all our compressor sites, to prepare the network for winter 2026/27.
• Gas‑fired power generation remains critical to balancing the electricity system, as demonstrated in Summer 2025 when gas stations were repeatedly called on to rapidly increase output, at times by more than 6GW within a few hours, to make up for intermittent renewable generation.
• Great Britain is expected to export gas to continental Europe over the summer, forecasts are broadly in line with last year and reflect normal seasonal market behaviour when domestic supply exceeds demand in Great Britain. 
• National Gas expect GB storage to behave as usual, entering this summer with overall storage stocks at a similar level to summer 2025.
• Great Britain’s gas storage operates on a flexible, fast‑cycling basis, with storage levels rising and falling frequently as gas is injected and withdrawn when needed. This differs from the more strategic, seasonal approach to storage seen in many European countries, where sites are refilled over summer ahead of winter demand.

This forecast was prepared ahead of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. National Gas has since reviewed its analysis which concludes that the market is expected to still have sufficient capacity and capability to meet forecast GB demand. This reflects lower seasonal demand during the summer months and the diversity of gas supply sources available to Great Britain, including domestic production, Norway, LNG and storage. Working with government, industry, and NESO, National Gas continues to closely monitor the situation.

Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, Director of Energy Systems and Resilience at National Gas, said:

“Lower demand for gas during the warmer summer months provides an opportunity for us to carry out our annual programme of routine maintenance, helping to ensure the network is ready for winter and continues to operate safely and reliably.

“While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised questions about Britain’s gas supplies, our forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer. The diversity of supply sources, including domestic production, Norway, LNG and storage, provides resilience and flexibility as supply flows and demand patterns change.”

Ian Radley, Chief Commercial Officer at National Gas, said:

“Gas continues to play a critical role in supporting the electricity system, even during the summer months. As renewable output fluctuates, gas‑fired power stations are increasingly required to respond quickly, and the network must be able to support that safely and reliably.

“It is important that ongoing, coordinated action between Government, industry and regulators continues to address future risks arising from declining domestic production and an increasing reliance on imports. 

“These near and medium-term challenges are well established through previous assessments, including our Winter Outlooks, NESO’s Gas Supply Security Assessment and the Government’s Gas System in Transition consultation.

“We're committed to working with Government and across the sector to ensure the network delivers the reliability and flexibility Britain needs - this summer and beyond.”

In October 2025, National Gas published its annual Winter Outlook which pointed to tightening future supply margins associated with declining UK Continental Shelf production and an increasing reliance on global imports. This forecast was supported by NESO’s Gas Supply Security Assessment published in November 2025. 

In February 2026, National Gas published its response to the Government’s Gas System in Transition: Security of Supply consultation which detailed a series of policy options to safeguard Britain’s energy security.

By working collaboratively with partners across the sector and investing in our network, we are ensuring that Great Britain is well-prepared for this year and beyond.  

National Gas will publish its Gas Winter Review and Gas Winter Outlook later in the year, providing a more detailed assessment of conditions for winter 2026/27.

Read the full report here.
Read the one-page summary document here.