National Gas publishes Summer Outlook for 2024

National Gas has today (Thursday, 11 April) published its Summer Outlook 2024 report, presenting its view of peak demand, supply capability and the associated margins for the six months to the end of September. 

The Outlook shows that forecasted summer demand is expected to be very similar to last year, with higher levels of gas being exported to Europe at the beginning of the period. This is expected to be followed by a sharp drop off as EU storage becomes more full and gas from GB is no longer required to the same extent. 

However, this year National Gas expects a reduction in total volumes compared to last summer due to the higher storage levels the EU already has in place. Top lines from the report: 

• We forecast that there is more than enough supply to meet GB demand this summer. National Gas expect GB gas demand will be primarily met by supplies from the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) and Norway, with the balance being secured from LNG. 

• National Gas expect to see an overall reduction in demand this summer. This is largely due to the expectation of reduced exports to continental Europe, in combination with reduced demand for gas for power generation. 

• The asset maintenance programme in summer 2024 is one of the most extensive National Gas have undertaken. National Gas are carefully phasing their maintenance works to ensure that they minimise the effects of asset unavailability on network resilience while maintaining our operational flexibility. 

• National Gas have the right tools and services available to manage operability safely and efficiently. Low summer demand conditions on the National Transmission System (NTS) generally increase network resilience. Whilst National Gas will do everything they can to avoid constraints on the network, they have the assets and the commercial market tools available to manage any issues should they occur. 

Ian Radley, System Operations Director at National Gas, said: “Looking ahead to summer, we believe there is a robust gas supply for Great Britain, thanks to a strong supply from the UK Continental Shelf and Norway.

“At the same time, we expect to see a reduction in overall demand for our gas exports as a result of Europe’s improved storage levels and energy diversification. 

“And we also anticipate one of the most extensive asset maintenance programmes ever undertaken in Great Britain this summer which, when combined with lower demand, will bolster network resilience. 

"We'll continue to work closely with industry and DESNZ to improve energy resilience through vigilant monitoring and management of gas supply and demand.” 

National Gas’s priority is to ensure the National Transmission System continues to deliver gas to homes and businesses safely and reliably. As a responsible system operator, National Gas continually monitors supply and demand behaviour throughout the year, identifying risks and taking appropriate mitigating actions. It continues to work closely with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) on the proposals set out in the Energy Security Plan, which details focus areas for enhancing energy security. 

The country benefits from having diverse and flexible supplies, steady and reliable from the UKCS and Norway as well as from the LNG and the Interconnectors. The network has sufficient capability to accept gas from each of these sources in response to how the market chooses to balance demand and supply. 

Notes to editors

• The full report is available at Gas Summer Outlook | National Gas.  For any media queries, please contact [email protected]