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Demand forecasting
We publish our demand forecasts over a range of timescales to assist the industry to make efficient decisions in balancing their supply and demand positions.
Gas demand can fluctuate due to a range of factors including the commercial environment and weather patterns. National Gas takes multiple factors into consideration when forecasting demand. Incentives in this area measure the accuracy of these forecasts. The forecasts we release are available through the Gas operations pages.
Day-ahead
We forecast demand at 13:00hrs on a day-ahead basis and have been subject to an incentive based upon the accuracy of this forecast since 2006. The current version of this scheme is in place from 01 April 2021 for 5 years. The maximum amount we can earn from the scheme is £1.5m, which requires an end of year average error of <4.5mcm.
The scheme has a target forecast error of 8.35mcm per day adjusted up to a further 1mcm dependant upon the extent of additional short cycle storage injection capability connected to the NTS. The maximum amount we can lose is £1.5m. You can view our performance on this incentive by downloading our Supporting Information Document.
Two-days to five-days ahead
We publish demand forecasts each day from two to five days ahead of the day. The current two-to-five-day-ahead incentive scheme was introduced on 01 April 2021 and is for reporting only.