We publish forecasts of gas demand over a range of timescales to help the industry make efficient decisions in balancing their supply and demand positions, our customers have told us they use our forecasts in a variety of ways, some parties use it as a view for the following days whilst others use it as a validation against their own forecast. 

These forecasts therefore support Shippers’ planning processes, helping them manage their positions. Gas demand on the network can fluctuate significantly due to factors such as market conditions and weather patterns. To improve accuracy, we consider a wide range of inputs when producing demand forecasts. We are financially incentivised on the accuracy of our day-ahead demand forecasts.  

All the forecasts we make under the incentive scheme are available on our Operational data pages. 

Day-Ahead Demand Forecasting

We publish a day-ahead demand forecast at 13:00 hrs. We have been incentivised on the accuracy of this forecast since 2006. 

Our Target demand forecast error is 6.79 mcm/day, with an adjustment by up to +2 mcm/day related to the growth in error for wind generation, this is an area impacts the demand forecast accuracy. The maximum reward: £1.7 million, is achievable with an end-of-year average error of <3.79 mcm/day. And the maximum penalty: £1.7 million, incurred if the average error is approximately 9.79mcmday. 

This incentive ensures that our forecasts remain as accurate as possible, supporting efficient market operations. 

Two-to-five day ahead forecasts

We also publish daily forecasts for demand covering two to five days ahead. The current reputational two-to-five-day-ahead incentive scheme was introduced on 1 April 2021 and will remain in place throughout the RIIO-3 regulatory period, ending on 30 March 2031.